By: Jacques-Louis Soubirous 22-07-2019
Fitch Bennett Partners works with many companies active in the mobility.
For an update on the autonomous cars, we met David Favest, B2B Director Touring Belgium, Marketer 2017 and Damien Deroanne, consultant/trainer/speaker whose book on autonomous cars is expected for after the holiday season.
David Favest www.linkedin.com/in/dfavest
Damien Deroanne https://www.linkedin.com/in/damien-deroanne-6155993b/?originalSubdomain=be
FBP: What will mobility look like in the years 2030-2040?
David Favest : Let's be utopian: Easier access to all mobility services will become reality, customer journey will be seamless and new services will make the travel experience smoother. The current generation of 18- to 25-year-old is already much more inclined to share a mode of transportation, more service-oriented than looking for pure ownership. It is moving towards an ultra-connected multimodality (MaaS application - Mobility as a Service - in real time).
Damien Deroanne : Yes, absolutely. Multi-modality is gaining ground, offering a set of solutions (soft mobility, cars, public transport). This is not science fiction since this blockchain of mobility is already being implemented in several Scandinavian cities under the banner of "MaaS Global"
FBP. Are autonomous cars just fashionable?
David Favest : No, at all, the added value of these vehicles will increase: more safety, more leisure during transport, less space occupied on the road thanks to the reduction of gaps between vehicles, etc ...), without counting the car sharing. According to the World Economic Forum, more than 40% of future autonomous cars (i.e. at least 5% of the total car fleet in 2030) will be shared and, by 2040, more than 50% of all self-driving cars will be shared. (i.e.15% of the total fleet). The stake is colossal!
Damien Deroanne : The gigantic logistical and financial means invested by the developers of these autonomous vehicles make it possible to affirm that in the long term, the autonomy of the vehicles whatever they are (cars, trucks, drones, boats, ...) will become THE standard . Only the speed of deployment and the deadline are impossible to predict. On the other hand, if "Level 3" cars (i.e. with on-board controls) will quickly appear on our roads, it will probably take several decades before "Level 5" vehicles (without any on-board orders) have replaced all other forms of traditional and semi-autonomous cars.
FBP. Should car manufacturers worry about this upcoming revolution?
David Favest : Yes and no.
Yes, because if a car manufacturer fails to operate the turnaround of its business model sufficiently quickly (R & D, alliances, etc.), the combined consequences of the connected-autonomous-shared-electrified (CASE) trend will be considerable on its immediate revenues and that of its traditional network, mainly after-sales.
No because realistic scenarios calculated using real data suggest a total production volume worldwide of 120 million vehicles in 2030 (100 million in 2018). And the reasons are simple, the current fleet will have to be replaced by these vehicles "CASE" and users are ready to accept autonomous and shared concepts as additional mobility, not necessarily to replace their private car.
Damien Deroanne : To the contrary. Because autonomous cars contribute to fight against the grievances accused of "traditional" cars: safety, traffic, pollution as well as the democratization of automobile mobility. These positive contributions will reconcile opponents of the automobile. In addition, autonomous cars may be driven by older or younger populations. The emotional and rational appeal of these new vehicles can only delight manufactures currently investing in this new technology.
Partners Benelux Jean-Paul Bissen - Serge Caustur - Aad Vijfvinkel